The ceasefire in Gaza, which came as a surprise and in which hardly anybody believed anymore, took place at same time as the transition of the U.S. presidency from one administration to another. The difficult negotiation lasted for months under the leadership of Biden's team, leading to a very complex process, divided into three stages with an infinite number of intermediate steps. We have not achieved peace yet, but it is a very fragile beginning that must be supported in every way.
The first three abducted women have been freed. Palestinians in the Gaza Strip are showing they believe in the ceasefire by attempting an arduous return to their homes, which often means finding only a pile of rubble. The fact remains that this is an instable situation, where mistakes are possible at every step, with the risk of ruining everything, as, moreover, the falcons on both sides hope. The operation “Iron Wall” launched yesterday by the IDF in Jenin and Hamas' invitation to react are examples of this attitude.
The newly inaugurated President Trump wanted to give his endorsement to an arrangement not properly worked out by his administration, sending his personal representative to talk with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu even before taking over power. The message was heard, and it could not have been otherwise: it did not suit the Israeli government to get in the way of its most important ally even before the inauguration. Donald Trump will try to keep alive the hope of a transition from a ceasefire to real negotiations, in the spirit of the Abrahamic Accords that had brought a substantial part of the Arab world closer to Israel.
To go beyond the fragile ceasefire, several factors need to concretise. First of all, a new unified Palestinian leadership needs to emerge, so that Hamas is not the only one to represent everyone. There are at least a dozen Palestinian political factions that no one has successfully unified yet . It is possible that the Trump administration will work on this with better outcomes. Secondly, the President will have to offer guarantees to the current governing majority in Israel: ideological proximities are known but they are not enough for its stability. Moreover, he cannot disappoint the (more or less loyal) U.S. allies in the Middle East, in particular Saudi Arabia and Turkey. The first ones have said they are willing to contribute to the reconstruction of Gaza and are waiting for a response. The latter are maintaining stability and moderation in the new Syria - which is in the interest of both Washington and Jerusalem. In addition, other allies such as Egypt and Jordan weakened by various factors and whose stability is always at risk, will have to be reassured. Certainly the weakening of the Shiite bow between Iran and Hezbollah fosters the American presence in the area and strengthens Netanyahu himself.
The instinct of Trump and his coalition would be isolationism, a doctrine that has a history in America and represents a signature for the new president at the moment.
He has said it many times and repeated it at the inauguration: duties, return of manufacturing, energy consumption of its own, etc. In his speech Trump never mentioned the European allies or made any distinctions: America intends to present itself to the world alone as the strongest country.
However, history is already taking on the task of pushing it out of itself. In fact, many expect Donald Trump to promote peace in Ucraine, too, as in Gaza. The second hostage release is scheduled for next weekend while around a hundred Palestinian prisoners have already been released from Israeli prisons. These are encouraging signs: it's true, very fragile, but at least they exist and starting from these we can build something more lasting for the region. In a chaotic world, where opposition and clashes have long prevailed, the Gaza ceasefire is a first sign of an opposing trend.
It is not useful to look at the situation with a spirit of resignation. On the contrary, it is necessary to protect it and accompany it with all possible abundant resources of the international community. First of all, we owe it to the populations who have suffered too much from war, as Pope Francis recalled in last Sunday's Angelus: «Both the Israelis and the Palestinians need clear signs of hope: I hope that both political authorities, with the help of the international community, can reach the right solution for the two States. Everyone can say: yes to dialogue, yes to reconciliation, yes to peace."
published in Avvenire Jan. 22nd, 2025, translation by editorial staff
